Permanent (“de jure”) population of Armenia is still decreasing: 2.957mln as of 01.04.2020 (decrease by 5.2ths compared with 01.04.2019). Decrease is slower than in same period 1 year ago (7.8ths).
“De facto” population of Armenia decreased by 11ths in 2020Q1 (based on information on natural growth and border crossings). This is the highest negative figure in Q1 for last 3 years, but decrease has one simple explanation: in situation with Covid-19 overall lockdown, the citizens of every country decided to return to their country. Particularly, border crossing balance for Armenian citizens in 2020Q1 is +18,609, while total balance (regardless of citizenship) is negative at 11,752. It is expected that most of foreign citizens who has lived and worked in Armenia will return in second and third quarter of a year, the same will happen to Armenian citizens who had permanent jobs in other countries.
Graph 1. Armenia’s year-end population, mln
Graph 2. Population change in first quarters**
Although negative migration is usual for countries in similar economic conditions with Armenia, but perhaps due to “velvet revolution” positive migration has been registered in Armenia in recent years. This is a good sign, but large efforts are still needed to change negative trend in long-run period for Armenia.
We expect ~0 migration over 2020 considering lockdown and economic recession worldwide.
Graph 3. Border crossings (All vs Armenia citizens)